“In the face of our new economic reality of dwindling oil prices, there are a number of things we can really do without in order to preserve our economy.
“We must develop the capacity to feed ourselves and we should be spending our resources on real development projects, not luxuries,” President Buhari
These two sentences convey an urgent message. The urgency of now in how we channel our attitude towards a new economic reality. That new reality, in my view must emphasise internal wealth mobilisation and utilisation, local production, cut back on luxury goods and items, aggressive capacity building, and strategic opening of export markets for specific goods.
The declining oil prices are a blessing in disguise, in my view. Even if it falls to a dollar per barrel, Nigeria can thrive on the long run and thrive sustainably too! The survival ‘wake up call’ we desperately need may be here at last. If we choose to rise up to our true potential, put aside the bickering, decide to hate corruption, find some inner pride, take steps to ensure we can cater for our internal needs, and also export to earn foreign exchange – hopefully for mainly productive reasons.
We simply cannot go on pretending we are “pop stars” in a relatively underdeveloped economy, by diverting development resources into the pockets of a tiny group who then act as if they are living in LA or Paris. despite the fact the 11 Million children are out of school… It is a false reality that is akin to building islands of paradise in seas of poverty, and expecting them to thrive sustainably. They won’t. Crime and other daily traumas will not let anyone truly enjoy qualitative lifestyle, that is actually achievable with more thought moderation and equitable distribution of resources.
The problems are not difficult to understand. As Confucius, the great Chinese Philosopher said “Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated”. Exchange rates mirror economic health/profile of a Nation and reflects demand and supply realities. How many people are frantically seeking to buy Naira in London, New York and other places where we love to go and expend? We are always chasing FOREX, often for frivolous reasons. Our consumption, right up to hair and nails are increasingly “dollarized”. That is the tragedy of attitude that has led to Nigerians even abandoning their own skin for lighter foreign shades, with the help of skin creams made largely outside Nigeria. A back of the envelope calculation of these avoidable vanities will pop up figures in the that will shock and astound. The champagne mouth-washing, shoe & bags desperation, bling bling, Ferraris etc must be scaled down. Only those who have earned their wealth through hard work should have the right to live like pop stars – if that is what they want. It can’t be at the expense of soldiers, children, the aged and vulnerable and you and me. enough must now be enough. Julian Casablancas captures it aptly when he says that “Vanity can easily overtake wisdom. It usually overtakes common sense”. We need to rescue ourselves from the clutches of vanity.
Without the buffer of the high oil income, we have been ruthlessly exposed by global economics. Simple. CBN, in my view, compounded this problem with policy statements that were not explained and properly sequenced. Whether true or not, many people now believe that the BDC’s were effectively given a few months window to ‘extort’ Nigerians, adding to the woes. Perhaps the identity of the BDC owners needs to be investigated and revealed. We also cannot ignore the depletion of Naira value on the alter of conducting an election that preceded this current administration. To do so will be to wish the truth away and ignore the basic principles of ’cause and effect’.
Employment challenges at a time when our national income has dwindled and may stay dwindled ( from oil income perspective), and budget funding may be an issue, is worrisome. More worrisome, in my view, is the evident lack of preparedness for employment that we see daily. In fact, it is so bad that many have concluded that the job searching effort is often a ruse. Many simply do not want to work – at least not a hard days work. There are vices that can deliver income beyond what gainful employment can. That is why we witness an explosion in prostitution ( aka runs also indulged in by very very well employed people), cybercrime, kidnapping and all sorts. Far too many do not have the requisite skills. Despite often impressive degrees and CVs, many can’t write, comprehend properly, don’t read, don’t want to read, don’t want to learn, talk less of thinking innovatively. Many employers spend huge resources simply ensuring their employees do not fleece them to death through theft and ineptitude. Many small businesses pack up, not due to lack of capital, but lack of honest skilled workers willing to work fairly to earn their pay. That is what leads to cashflow depletion and eventual ruination. In short our skill base ( FROM PLUMBING TO OFFICE JOBS) cannot manufacture industrially, at least not qualitatively. These are facts.
However, many are victims of a bad education system and a morally deficient society that does not have enough inspirational leaders who have built wealth credibly. One solution pathway is to convert a large portion of the NYSC window into a ‘skills and ethics for business’ programme to rapidly rework BASIC attitudinal and technical gaps. Employers battling on many fronts cannot be expected to pay people to train them for work. We need new thinking.
Infrastructure must focus on the building of shared infrastructure manufacturing parks or repurposing of large complexes to support manufacturing for defined class of goods that we have identified markets for. Power will come when it comes, but we must work around the problem with IMMEDIATE innovations. I believe the unit cost of production when you aggregate cost inputs like power cannot be more expensive than China. I challenge anyone to bring forward a cost analysis to the contrary in respect of items that we can produce here, but are not producing on an industrial basis because of the excuse of ‘ No power’.
With our huge local and diaspora population, we now need to think more urgently and aggressively. For example, what stops Nigerian funding going into establishing marts and stores o in countries with huge Nigerian audiences and afro curious shoppers, who will buy our products ( such as fashion) all day long? Our Ambassadors must be tasked with drawing attention to our creativity and helping to birth structures where Nigerian creativity can be purchased, and in effect catalysing a linkage between production and markets. I am not certain we pursue opportunities like this with a clear vision. When you see a Shoprite here, it serves as an outpost for South African production and by consequence, jobs. We are not leveraging our population, diversity and dispersion at all. What we are doing is piecemeal, lacking in quality and generally unimpressive. We need to bring more structure, focus, innovation and resources to how we link production to markets. The Trade and Investment Minister is accomplished, and must now come out with an action plan for short medium and long term hauls.
Across board, we must pressurise our political leaders to embrace prudence, even if it means we confront them to their faces. This is no time for senators to be showing off exotic cars – Dino Melaye style. It offends the sensibilities of those who already feel battered. It only paints a picture of “fat cats” in the eyes of those we are supposed to inspire towards hard work. Little wonder kids want to be politicians and political contests here have assumed proportions that are unseen anywhere else in the world. I mean can anyone else identify societies where people ago ritualistic to win elections? People who are at the status of senators ( many of whom are ex governors suspected to have bled their states), and governors etc; should find the elevation of spirit to say….” we are all comfortable, lets give up some expensive perks even if we are entitled to them”… that will send a signal and ultimately release more monies to go towards the things that really matter at the moment.
Innovative reworking of the taxation system may also yield fruit for short term results. Long term sustainability is premised on broad prosperity and jobs. Benefits may be linked with informal sector compliance and here funds can be used for specific pre identified purposes – perhaps funding of the three tiers of Government.that way we feel a conection to the resources as opposed to the abstract oil seeping out from the Delta that many do not have a sense of ownership over and could not care less who those resources are looted.
President Buhari must squeeze out every stolen Naira he can find, and ensure the thieves are diligently prosecuted.What we are learning of daily is simply unbelievable, and many right-minded people support the intensity of focus on corruption. Apologists and beneficiaries form the bulk of those who seem to be more concerned about the bail and status etc of those indicted, rather than the restitution of their victims. Perhaps they need them out to properly scheme how to extort them. who knows? Joe Biden, the US VP, describes Fighting corruption as not just good governance, but self-defense. PMB says if we do not kill corruption, then it will kill us.. Nothing we embark upon will yield tangible results until people understand that there will be consequences for corrupt action…from both Government and Society. If we can’t roll it back, shame its practitioners, avoid them, heckle them,refuse their gifts, and express our loathing for them to their faces, then we will ultimately collapse in a heap (whatever form collapse takes), and become the laughing stock of Africa – those who had it all, but are now destitute.
Again it was Confucius who said that “The superior man does not, even for the space of a single meal, act contrary to virtue. In moments of haste, he cleaves to it. In seasons of danger, he cleaves to it.’
Do we have it in us to be superior men and women? Our are we inferior human stock? The declining oil prices and how we conduct our affairs during this trying period will answer this question.
