The pros and cons of Nigeria’s currency swap deal with China

Very few Nigerians saw the deals Nigeria entered into with China coming but it is true, Nigeria has signed a currency deal with China allowing the free flow of the Chinese Yuan amongst Nigerian banks. The deal is arguably one of the best or worst policies so far of the Buhari Administration – depending on who you are listening to or following.

With the agreement, Nigerian banks would now be able to settle payments directly from Naira to Yuan, rather than from Naira to black market Dollar and then to Yuan. In fact, an extension of this is that debit and credit cards can now be issued and denominated in Yuan. A sizeable portion of the local Dollar demand is thus eliminated, reducing the pressure on our Dollar reserves.

To boost our Yuan liquidity, the Chinese loans being negotiated by the Federal Govt may be availed partly or wholly in Yuan. This will greatly boost Nigeria’s Central Bank and commercial banks’ Yuan liquidity. In fact, the Nigerian and Chinese Govts are reported to have entered into a framework arrangement for currency swaps as a means of providing the much needed liquidity.

At current rates of 30.74 Naira to the Yuan, and 6.74RMB (Yuan) to the Dollar, Nigeria would be able to fund its importation at the equivalent of the current official rate of N199/$1.

PROS

This policy will lead to a reduced demand for Dollars and easing off of pressure on our Dollar reserves, as a large portion of Nigeria’s import needs are served by China considering the fact that China is Nigeria’s largest trading partner and deals such as Dangote’s purchase of 3400 trucks will henceforth be settled in Yuan rather than scarce Dollar reserves, which would then be sufficient to service other legitimate investor demands such as portfolio investments, capital repatriation, etc.

This policy also implies cheaper imports from China as importers from China would import at the equivalent of the current official rate of N199/$1 as against the current parallel market rate of N320/$1.

CONS

This policy may keep Nigeria as an importation-dependent economy. Due to its deliberate policies towards boosting its economics of scale, China produces most goods at a comparative advantage. While we have decried the importation of toothpicks and the likes from China, we must bear in mind that we import toothpicks not because we do not have bamboo and other raw materials in Nigeria, but because China is able to bring these goods to the Nigerian market at a much cheaper price than the one produced right here in Nigeria. The reasons are not far-fetched; the availability of infrastructure, cheap labour and use of manufacturing clusters. This policy would therefore sound a death-knell to the resurgent local production of importation substitutes.

Again, this policy would only bear the projected fruits if and only if the Nigerian factor doesn’t come into play. As demand for Yuan surges, a parallel market for Yuan may soon be created, bringing us back to this same point many years after.

WHITHER NIGERIA?

This policy should not be viewed as a solution to Nigeria’s Dollar dependency as we may otherwise inadvertently create a Yuan dependency. At the very best, this policy should be a stop-gap, a short-term measure devised to keep things in place while we sort out our infrastructural and policy challenges. The future prosperity of Nigeria lies in production for local consumption and export, and not the consumption of foreign imports.

This piece was written by Maxwell Asowata, a Lagos-based Legal Practitioner and Business Consultant. It first appeared here