Nigeria’s telecom industry has delivered one of its strongest performances in recent memory, posting 21.49% real GDP growth in Q3 2025, according to fresh data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It’s a sharp departure from the steady, single-digit growth the sector has recorded in recent years—and it firmly reinforces telecoms as one of the most powerful pillars of Nigeria’s non-oil economy. The surge comes on the back of rising mobile data consumption, a fast-expanding subscriber base that has now crossed 220 million, and recent policy shifts that have reshaped how the ICT sector’s value is calculated.
Behind the big number is a mix of real market momentum and methodological changes. Operators are finally seeing the financial impact of economic reforms—tariff adjustments approved earlier in the year, FX liberalisation, and subsidy removal have collectively stabilised revenue and opened the door for more aggressive network investments. At the same time, the government’s ongoing GDP rebasing exercise has broadened how digital activity is counted, bringing online commerce, cloud services, and data usage more fully into national output. Telecoms, which make up the largest share of the ICT sector, benefited heavily from this recalibration.
The subscriber milestone of 220 million active lines adds important context. Beyond the headline figure, Nigeria’s deepening dependence on digital services—from streaming and social media to fintech apps and e-commerce—continues to push data usage to new highs. With 5G rolling out in pockets of major cities and operators expanding their fibre footprints, data has now overtaken voice as the primary revenue driver for mobile networks. The ripple effect is also visible in adjacent sectors: fintech adoption, online retail, and digital payments all rise in tandem with stronger broadband access.
MTN Nigeria remains the dominant force in this landscape. The operator closed the quarter with 87.5 million subscribers, controlling more than half of the country’s mobile market—almost double Airtel’s 57.6 million users. MTN also staged a dramatic financial recovery, swinging from a loss last year to a ₦750.2 billion profit for the first nine months of 2025, buoyed by its data-led business model, network expansion, and its growing mobile money footprint. While its dominance showcases operational strength, it also raises familiar questions about competition and consumer choice, issues the NCC continues to watch closely.
The growth story is reflected in rising infrastructure spend. Operators have stepped up capital expenditure, especially in fibre deployment and 5G rollout. The Federal Government is backing this momentum with a plan to lay an additional 90,000 kilometres of fibre across the country, aiming to hit 70% broadband penetration by 2025. This focus on connectivity is already attracting new foreign investment and positioning telecoms as the backbone of Nigeria’s digital ambitions.
Telecoms now sit at the centre of Nigeria’s economic transformation. With the non-oil sector contributing over 96% of GDP in Q3, the industry’s performance underscores a deeper structural shift—one that reduces the economy’s dependence on crude oil and amplifies the role of digital services in everyday life. As the Minister of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijani, has repeatedly highlighted, Nigeria’s digital economy could generate more than $18.3 billion by 2026. The Q3 numbers suggest that projection is no longer aspirational—it is increasingly within reach.
The sector’s 21.49% growth rate is more than a statistical outlier; it’s an early signal of Nigeria’s accelerating transition into a digital-first economy powered by hundreds of millions of connected citizens, rising data consumption, and sustained investment from operators like MTN. The momentum is real—what matters now is whether Nigeria can sustain it.
