The new data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) looks like a simple “number go up” story. Active telephone subscriptions climbed to 173.54 million in September. Broadband penetration hit a new record of 49.34%. Teledensity, which is the number of active lines per 100 people, also ticked up to 80.05%.
But if you read just a bit further into the NCC’s report, you’ll find a surprising detail. This detail reveals a more intriguing and human side of the Nigerian economy. Despite adding nearly 2 million new subscriptions in a single month, the total amount of data used by all these subscribers actually… fell.
Data traffic dropped from 1,152,347 terabytes in August to 1,147,133 terabytes in September. So, the big question is: how can you have more people online, but less internet being used?
This dip, though slight, is a powerful symbol of “cautious consumer spending.” It suggests that while Nigerians are still coming online, they are being squeezed by higher living costs.
Data is the new “sachet.” It’s an essential, but flexible, expense. When the price of food, transport, and power goes up, the first thing you cut back on is the “extra” 2-hour YouTube stream or the high-definition Netflix download. You toggle your data off more often. You stick to your WhatsApp chats. The industry is growing, but it’s straining against the reality of a tough economy.
The “173 Million” Myth: A Deeper Analysis
Now, let’s talk about that big 173.54 million number, because it’s not what you think. That number does not mean 173.5 million Nigerians have phones. It means there are 173.54 million active SIM cards. The real number of unique subscribers is much lower. Why? Because of the “multi-SIM” phenomenon.
Let’s be honest: how many phones or SIMs do you juggle?
- You have your MTN SIM because its call network is reliable everywhere.
- You have your Airtel SIM because their “SmartSPEEDO” data bundle is cheap this month.
- You keep a Globacom SIM in an old phone just for the “Family & Friends” free calls.
This is the reality for millions. We are all “multi-SIM” users, constantly switching between networks to find the best call quality or the cheapest data deal. This is a direct symptom of a market where no single provider is seen as the best at everything, and where price is a major factor.
So, that 80.05% “teledensity” figure is misleading. It’s a measure of SIMs, not people. The real, unique-human teledensity is significantly lower, which means there are still tens of millions of Nigerians yet to be truly connected.
The Market Share War: A Two-Horse Race
The data also shows us who is winning this battle for subscribers. It’s not a four-way fight; it’s a two-horse race, with one 800-pound gorilla.
- MTN: Remains the undisputed king. With 90.33 million subscribers, it controls 52.1% of the entire market. More than one out of every two active SIMs in Nigeria is an MTN line.
- Airtel: Is the strong, clear #2. With 58.47 million users, it holds a very healthy 33.7% of the market.
- Globacom: Is a distant third with 21.39 million users, or 12.3% of the market.
- T2 Mobile (formerly 9mobile): Is sadly becoming a rounding error, with just 3.11 million users, or 1.8% of the market.
The “Big Fix”: A 90,000km Digital Highway
Here’s the most important part. The government and the NCC know that the core problem. The reason we all juggle SIMs and “sachet-size” our data is that the internet is still too expensive, too slow, and too unreliable.
The current 35,000km of fibre-optic cable in the country is not enough. It’s like the whole of Nigeria trying to share a single B-road. The “Big Fix” is the National Broadband Plan, and its most ambitious project: laying 90,000 kilometres of new fibre-optic cable.
- What is this? This is a multi-million-dollar, public-private partnership to build a “digital highway” that will stretch the total network to 125,000km. It’s designed to link every city, rural community, school, and hospital.
- Why? This massive “open access” highway will allow different service providers to use the same infrastructure, a bit like every logistics company using the same interstate expressway.
- The Goal: This new competition is projected to reduce internet costs by up to 60%.
This is the real solution. It’s the only way to solve the “cautious spending” problem and truly get the country to its 70% broadband penetration target. So, while the new subscriber numbers are good, the real story is the race to build the “digital highway” that can actually support them.
Below is a brief explainer on how multi-SIM ownership is common in Nigeria. This video discusses the implications of multiple SIM ownership, a key reason why Nigeria’s 173 million “subscribers” don’t necessarily equal 173 million people.
