After months of decline, Nigeria’s mobile subscription base has rebounded, reaching 157.3 million active lines in October 2024, up from 154.6 million in September. This recovery marks a significant milestone for the telecommunications sector, which has faced challenges stemming from regulatory audits and the implementation of the NIN-SIM linkage policy.
Industry Leaders Drive Growth
Two major operators, MTN and Airtel, spearheaded the recovery, recording notable increases in their subscriber base:
- MTN Nigeria, the largest telecom operator by market share, added 2.2 million new subscriptions, bringing its total active lines to 80.3 million. This growth solidified its dominance, capturing 51.09% of the mobile market.
- Airtel Nigeria followed with an increase of 697,430 subscriptions, raising its total to 54.4 million. Airtel now commands 31.61% of the market share.
Mixed Results for Other Operators
While MTN and Airtel showed impressive growth, other operators faced continued challenges:
- Globacom, which had been heavily affected by the NIN-SIM linkage exercise and the NCC’s audit, saw its subscriber base decline by 44,635 in October, leaving it with 19.1 million active subscriptions and a 12.15% market share.
- 9mobile experienced a further loss of 245,263 subscriptions, reducing its active lines to 3.3 million, representing just 2.15% of the market.
Teledensity on the Rise
The surge in active subscriptions has positively impacted Nigeria’s teledensity, which measures the number of active telephone connections per 100 residents. According to the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), teledensity increased from 71.46% in September to 72.7% in October, based on a population estimate of 216 million.
Factors Behind the Recovery
The recovery in mobile subscriptions can be attributed to:
- Completion of the NIN-SIM Linkage Exercise: This regulatory policy required subscribers to link their National Identification Numbers (NIN) with their SIM cards, leading to the deactivation of improperly registered and inactive lines. This process, while initially reducing the subscription base, has ensured a more accurate and reliable database.
- NCC’s Database Audit: The audit uncovered significant discrepancies in how active subscribers were classified. One operator was found to have incorrectly classified approximately 40 million inactive lines as active, contributing to distorted industry data. The audit has since rectified these issues, paving the way for a more transparent and sustainable subscription base.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the recent growth, challenges remain for smaller operators like Globacom and 9mobile, which continue to lose market share. Addressing these losses will require strategic investments in network quality, customer retention initiatives, and competitive pricing models.
