For two years, ChatGPT was the clear leader in AI conversation tools. It became so popular that its name turned into a verb. However, recent data from Similarweb shows that Google is now gaining ground. Their “distribution engine” is performing well, making ChatGPT’s lead less secure.
Last year, if you needed to check a fact or write a detailed email, you would automatically turn to ChatGPT. It set the standard for quality. But then, Google stepped up and spread its Gemini AI across its services.
Now, when you’re reading an article in Chrome or looking at a spreadsheet in Workspace, you no longer need to go to a separate AI tool. The AI is already integrated into what you’re using. This easy access wins because it answers the simple questions that ChatGPT used to handle. For users, the quick links and verification tools in Google’s system are more convenient than switching tabs to find answers.
The Numbers: A “Brutal” Reality Check
The data tells a story of aggressive growth versus a “leaking” lead. Just twelve months ago, Gemini (then in its infancy) held a tiny 5.4% share of the generative AI traffic market. OpenAI, meanwhile, was a titan, commanding over 87% of the pie.
Fast forward to the end of 2025:
- Gemini’s Surge: Its traffic share has more than tripled, hitting 18.2% (with some trackers placing it at 13.7% in conservative web-only metrics).
- ChatGPT’s Dip: OpenAI’s flagship has seen its share slip from the high 80s to roughly 68%-72%.
- The Volume Gap: ChatGPT still leads in raw numbers, with a staggering 6.3 billion monthly visits compared to Gemini’s 1 billion.
But here’s the kicker: Gemini is the only major platform to grow consistently in every single data period tracked over the last year. While challengers like DeepSeek and Perplexity see viral spikes that eventually “fizzle out,” Gemini’s growth is steady and structural.
The “Distribution Edge” Explained
Analysts often say that “distribution beats product.” In this case, Google is proving it. By embedding Gemini into Android, Search (via AI Overviews), Chrome, and Workspace, Google has created a “Trojan Horse” strategy.
Key Definitions to Know:
- Native Access: This refers to AI features that are part of the operating system or the core application (like Gemini on Android) rather than requiring a separate website visit.
- Traffic Share: This is the percentage of total industry visitors that a specific site receives. It’s a better measure of “momentum” than raw numbers alone.
- Multimodality: Gemini was built to process more than just text. It handles audio, video, and images natively, which is why its Nano Banana image generator became a viral hit in late 2025.
The “Code Red” at OpenAI
The success of Gemini hasn’t gone unnoticed. Reports suggest that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman issued an internal “Code Red” memo in late 2024/early 2025 as Gemini 3 began outperforming ChatGPT on key industry benchmarks.
This pressure reportedly forced OpenAI to delay its expansion into e-commerce and advertising to refocus entirely on making ChatGPT more “agentic” and useful for daily tasks. The emergence of Josh Woodward, the Google executive credited with Gemini’s resurgence, has fundamentally rewritten the competitive landscape.
Why Developers are Moving
It isn’t just casual users like you; developers are praising Gemini’s “full project” grasp. With its massive one-million-token context window (in the Pro 2.5 and 3.0 models), Gemini can “read” an entire codebase or a thousand-page PDF in one go. For a developer, being able to say “fix the bug in this 50-file project” is a game-changer that ChatGPT has struggled to match in sheer scale.
Distribution is the New “Cool”
We are moving from the “Wow!” phase of AI (when we were amazed that a chatbot could talk) to the “Work” phase (when we just want it to help us get things done).
ChatGPT remains the world’s favourite standalone tool, but Gemini is becoming the world’s favourite integrated tool. As the market fragments, the “winner” might not be the most innovative model, but the one that is already open on your screen when you need it.
