Aliko Dangote has set a new, bolder horizon for his Lagos mega-refinery: doubling nameplate capacity from 650,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 1.4 million b/d, a scale that would eclipse India’s 1.36 million b/d Jamnagar complex and make the Nigerian facility the largest refinery in the world. The billionaire industrialist outlined the ambition in an interview referenced by S&P Global and local press, framing the expansion as a pragmatic next step made possible by the hard infrastructure already sunk into the Lekki Free Zone.
“We have to build the refinery again, either here or somewhere else,” he said, before noting that “somewhere else” would impose avoidable infrastructure costs. That logic tracks with the plant’s original masterplan: engineers designed the site with reserved plots for a second train, allowing new units to be slotted in with minimal disruption to existing operations. The company had already flagged a near-term debottlenecking from 650,000 to 700,000 b/d, and the longer leap to 1.4 million b/d would essentially add a second full processing system alongside the current one.
Operationally, momentum has been building. Industry trackers reported the refinery’s implied running rates rose to ~610,000 b/d in August 2025, approaching the nameplate. Argus noted that through mid-2025 the facility consistently operated above 400,000 b/d, stepping up to the mid-400s before the August surge—evidence, analysts said, that the plant was settling into sustained, high-throughput operations. While the residue fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC) reportedly experienced an outage in September, it has since returned to service, part of normal stabilization at a greenfield complex of this size.
The expansion is not just about fuels. Dangote Industries plans to deepen its petrochemicals slate, adding linear alkylbenzene and base oils and lifting polypropylene output from 1.0 to 1.5 million tonnes per year. These moves aim to substitute imports across detergents, lubricants, and plastics value chains, while creating higher-margin diversification beyond gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The group also says it now generates roughly twice the power it consumes, a critical buffer in Nigeria’s infrastructure-constrained environment and a lever for cost and reliability as throughput rises.
On financing, the company secured a $4 billion package in August 2025, easing near-term debt overhang and giving headroom for expansion and adjacencies—including an overseas petrochemicals project under consideration. Management has also kept the door open to strategic Middle Eastern investors and floated plans to list 5–10% of the refinery on the Nigerian Exchange, mirroring the group’s approach in cement and sugar. The stated intention is to retain a 65–70% controlling stake while gradually broadening local ownership as market conditions allow.
For Nigeria and the wider region, the stakes are significant. Since start-up in 2024, the refinery has reshaped flows, helping Nigeria meet the bulk of domestic fuel needs and export diesel and jet fuel, reversing years of import dependency. Doubling capacity would amplify those effects: a larger local cut of West African crude could anchor price stability, deepen FX savings, and spur downstream manufacturing—from packaging resins to automotive lubricants. It would also harden Africa’s energy security at a time when global refining capacity additions are uneven and shipping routes more volatile.
Dangote’s rhetoric leans into this continental framing. He argues that private capital is essential to close Africa’s refining gap, cautioning that high rates and infrastructure deficits make state-led projects difficult to execute at scale. The Lekki complex, he suggests, is proof that patient industrial investment can deliver national and regional dividends—provided financing, logistics, and regulation remain aligned.
Revenue expectations reflect that confidence. The group has telegraphed a strong top-line trajectory into next year, with the refinery positioned as a material earnings contributor as utilization rises and petrochemicals ramp. Execution risks remain—feedstock sourcing, unit reliability, FX liquidity, and policy stability among them—but the direction of travel is clear: from clearing domestic deficits to competing at global scale.
If delivered on schedule, the 1.4 million b/d vision would not merely set a new capacity record; it would mark a structural pivot in Africa’s industrial economy—locking in a refining-and-chemicals hub on the Gulf of Guinea and recoding the continent’s role in the global energy system from price taker to price maker.
