Apple is on track to ship more smartphones than Samsung in 2025, marking its first lead in global shipments since 2011, according to a report by Counterpoint Research. Counterpoint estimates Apple will ship approximately 243 million iPhones this year, compared to 235 million units from Samsung. This would give Apple a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market, edging out Samsung at 18.7%.
While shipments represent devices sent to retail channels rather than direct sales, they serve as a strong indicator of demand and sales expectations.
iPhone 17 Series Drives Growth
Apple’s surge is largely attributed to the success of its iPhone 17 series, launched in September, which enjoyed a “bumper” holiday season.
- In the U.S., sales during the first four weeks post-launch were 12% higher than the iPhone 16 series (excluding the 16e).
- In China, a critical market for Apple, sales rose 18% compared to its predecessor.
Yang Wang, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint, noted:
Beyond the strong reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver is the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who bought smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.
Samsung, meanwhile, is expected to face mounting challenges in the low-to-mid-tier segment from aggressive Chinese brands, which could hinder its ability to reclaim the top spot.
Counterpoint forecasts Apple will maintain its lead through 2029, supported by several structural advantages:
- 358 million second-hand iPhones sold between 2023 and mid-2025, creating a large upgrade base
- Minimal tariff impact due to the U.S.-China trade truce
- Growth in emerging markets and a weaker U.S. dollar boosting consumer confidence
“With these tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang said.
Future Product Strategy
Apple is expected to launch:
- Entry-level iPhone 17e in 2026
- A foldable iPhone in the near future
- A major design revamp in 2027
- Upgrades to Siri and expanded lineup across multiple price tiers
Counterpoint notes Apple’s strategy to capture demand from aspirational consumers in emerging markets and strengthen its presence in the lower premium segment, which is projected to grow faster than the overall market. “Given the growing preference for iOS, device compatibility, and a substantial installed base due for renewal, Apple is positioned to retain leadership through the end of the decade,” the report concludes.
