The satellite internet revolution appears unstoppable, until development slows. In Kenya, Starlink’s user base dropped from around 19,400 in December 2024 to approximately 17,500 by March 2025—a roughly 10% decline. As someone who closely tracks tech trends in emerging markets, this dip raises questions: is this a temporary slowdown or a warning sign that founders and investors should take seriously?
Kenya’s Communications Authority reported a 72.9% drop in new activations between October and December 2024—just 2,360 new users compared to 8,723 in the previous quarter.
Starlink also halted new sign-ups in Nairobi and five surrounding counties—Kajiado, Machakos, Kiambu, and Murang’a—citing capacity overload. It wasn’t until May 2025 that sign-ups resumed in these areas. To me, this isn’t a crisis—it’s growing pains.
Related story: Starlink surpasses local rivals to become Kenya’s seventh-largest ISP
What Starlink has revealed is that demand in Kenya, especially in urban areas, is outpacing infrastructure. Despite strong sales, the pause suggests that launching satellite hardware is far simpler than scaling and maintaining high-quality internet. As one Reddit user in Nairobi put it, “We were promised expanded capacity for existing users, but it hasn’t opened yet… lost opportunities.”
Yet the dip masks a deeper truth: usage among remaining users is rising. Reports show that data consumption increased by about 33% in the same period. Starlink isn’t losing relevance—it’s supporting heavier users who demand reliable, high-speed connections.
Why the Dip Matters—and How It Might Flip
Subscriber numbers are easy to track, but engagement is the more telling metric. With average speeds ranging from 100 Mbps to 1 Gbps, Starlink continues to deliver on its promise of low-latency, high-speed internet—outperforming traditional ISPs, especially in underserved areas.
However, to stay competitive, Starlink must solve its infrastructure bottlenecks.
It’s not just technical. Local competition is intensifying. Safaricom—still commanding over 36% of Kenya’s fixed broadband market—has criticized Starlink’s arrival, calling for regulatory review. In response, Safaricom boosted its fiber speeds fivefold and narrowed the pricing gap.
This rivalry could improve service quality for users, but it also increases pressure on Starlink.
There’s also the issue of affordability. The Starlink kit launched at KSh 89,000 (~$350)—later reduced—but still out of reach for many. One Reddit user noted, “Speed fluctuates… but I never drop below 40 Mbps and usually stay over 100 Mbps.” For heavy users, that value is clear. For everyone else, cost remains a barrier to adoption.
What’s Next?
Starlink’s new Point of Presence in Nairobi has reduced latency from about 120ms to 26ms—a technical breakthrough. But that’s just a start.
To grow sustainably, Starlink must focus on:
- Rural reach (where latency matters less, and availability matters more),
- Flexible pricing (satellite internet doesn’t have to be premium),
- Regulatory cooperation (partnering with telcos rather than competing against them).
In my view, this 10% dip reflects a shift from hyper-growth to strategic maturity. Delay, recalibrate, and relaunch—that’s the playbook for sustainable scale.
But execution will be everything. Infrastructure upgrades, local partnerships, adaptive pricing, and transparent customer engagement will determine whether Starlink becomes a lasting part of Kenya’s digital infrastructure—or just another flashy experiment.
Bottom Line
Yes, the 10% subscriber drop matters. But the bigger story isn’t about decline—it’s about capacity calibration. Starlink is adjusting supply to meet demand, preparing for long-term scale, and responding to a competitive market. The real question isn’t whether satellite internet belongs in Africa—it’s whether Starlink can adapt fast enough to lead it.
